The Bail-out NON-plan
I’ve been listening to Dodd’s Senate Banking Committee meeting with witnesses Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency James Lockhart. The gist of the story is that Paulson wants Congress to give him $700B without providing even an initial plan, no organizational structure, no personnel (industry experts who got us into this mess in the first place), no definite structure for real accountability to the taxpayers, and no guarantee that the bad debt they are proposing we buy will ever return so much as even money, and no historical reference for which such a plan like this ever worked. In the past, when the U.S. government “bailed out” the Savings & Loans during 1987, they simply guaranteed the debt, they did not purchase it. But in this plan, we are actually buying bad mortgage-backed securities, hoping that the market will improve and the taxpayers will eventually be able to sell these securities off if and when the market improves and at least break even.
There were dire predictions from Paulson about what would happen if Congress didn’t act quickly. Freezing credit markets means no business-to-business loans, no loans to farmers, no loans to consumers for mortgages or other items, inflation, etc. “The sky is falling!” as Chicken Little would say. Well, all I can say is there are dire consequences if Congress acts imprudently and rashly, too. Obama’s statement about Iraq could be applied here as well: we must be as careful and thoughtful about getting out of this mess as we were careless getting in.
“I urge you to provide in statute the authority to regulate these products to enhance investor protection and ensure the operation of fair and orderly markets,” he [Cox} said. The debt insurance is known as credit default swaps. (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080923/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown)
As part of their very vague, generalized proposal, which can be boiled down to “Give us unlimited authority and all the money now, and we’ll figure it out as we go along, they propose a reverse auction method, meaning that instead of the buyers competing with each other to purchase the product (an auction), the situation is reversed, where there are no real buyers, only the taxpayers, and the banks are bidding to sell their bad debt x amount of the dollar to us. We are, for all practical purposes, buying their bad debt so that they can look more profitable. And there are, so far as I can tell, no provisions which prevent these banks from rewarding their personnel with bonuses, etc., or golden parachutes for the executives (there has been some discussion about this from the Senators, but not from Paulson).
Effectively, Paulson would be God of the Financial Universe, with no serious oversight from Congress, no real requirement for approval from Congress as to the structure, the regulatory rules, etc. In other words, no accountability to the American taxpayers. Paulson’s reasoning is that it takes too long for all that.
I find this rush to produce legislation with no serious controls over this new “agency” we are creating to be very troubling, to say the least. The last time there was such a panic, “rush, Rush, RUSH” with legislation was the Defense Appropriations of 2007, wherein there was a clause transferring the power to declare a national emergency and impose martial law from the Congress to the president, UNILATERALLY, with not even notifying Congress of the decision until it was made, forget advice and consent. That little gem still stands and has been joined by the FISA Amendment of 2008, which effectively relieves us American citizens of the burden of having the protection of the Fourth Amendment (warrantless search and seizure). So, when I see the rush-Rush-RUSH to Congressional action with this administration, I am, to say the least, mightily concerned, and my reflexive response is to say “NO WAY!”
“I understand speed is important, but I’m far more interested in whether or not we get this right,” said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. “There is no second act to this. There is no alternative idea out there with resources available if this does not work,” he added. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26850571#storyContinued)
I agree with Dodd.
While this was going on, “Vice President Dick Cheney and Jim Nussle, the administration’s budget director, met privately with restive House Republicans, some of whom emerged from the session understated.”
“Just because God created the world in seven days doesn’t mean we have to pass this bill in seven days,” said Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas. (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080923/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown)
Rep. Barton speaks wisely in my view. And my own senator, Richard Shelby, who I normally have little agreement with, made what I consider a “spot-on” insight:
“Sen. Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, the panel’s senior Republican, was even more blunt. “I have long opposed government bailouts for individuals and corporate America alike,” he said. Seated a few feet away from Paulson and Bernanke, he added, “We have been given no credible assurances that this plan will work. We could very well send $700 billion, or a trillion, and not resolve the crisis.” (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080923/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown)
Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), in an exchange with Paulson, asked Paulson why they couldn’t accept a lower number that would get them through the first three months, which is when Paulson is due to report to Congress on how it worked. Schumer observed that, if the plan doesn’t work, they will be able to assess the damage in January and figure out what to do next at that time rather than handing Paulson the full$700B right now. Paulson admitted that the funds would be traunched (One of many influxes of cash that is part of a single round of investment.), but he wanted the full authority for all the money right now because it would restore market confidence.
I think that is absolute crap. Schumer’s proposal to give $150B for the next three months would be sufficient to get Paulson through this initial phase of the response to this debacle. And Schumer added that if there were a further and unforeseen market problem, the Congress could be called back in an emergency session to deal with the problem.
Paulson gave no concise, clear answers. He appeared to be totally unprepared to provide any vision of what he intended to do. This sparks absolutely no confidence in me that he is the man for the job. He may have a net worth of $500M, but being rich doesn’t mean you are smart at everything. He also could not provide any concrete suggestions of who he intended to call in to act as advisors or regulators for this project.
The bottom line is that he wants all the money, he wants it now, he doesn’t want to have any requirement or second-guessing from Congress, he wants no accountability for himself or this team if they screw it up, he has no guarantee that the taxpayers won’t get caught holding bad debt that can’t be recovered.
Further, he has no set of new regulations to propose by which to prevent further disasters like this. He intends to decide that later.
Everything about his attitude, his vagueness and lack of any substantial ideas in the committee hearing, the rush to judgment in moving legislation with a huge price tag and no real substantial controls – all of this smacks of a really, really bad idea. Not prudent, as Bush 41 would say.
It seems that Republicans are even more opposed to this than Democrats. I think Schumer has got it right. If it is, indeed, necessary at all to intervene in this market and purchase this bad debt to start a market recovery and avoid real disaster (and that is only a theory, not an absolute fact), then let’s try it for three months and see what happens. And let’s take our time in devising a plan that is carefully thought out with all the regulatory and oversight controls and mechanisms that we truly need to stop this problem cold and not see it continue.
Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. –
George Santayana quotes (Spanish born American Philosopher, Poet and Humanist who made important contributions to aesthetics, speculative philosophy and literary criticism. 1863-1952)
They [Congress] were warned!
My “informant” on another blog, hapi22, who writes very well-informed pieces, e-mailed this to the group today:
No one in the U.S. Senate can say he or she wasn’t warned about the coming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac meltdown.
On May 25, 2006, Sen. John McCain stood up in the Senate and made the following statement.
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“Mr. President, this week Fannie Mae’s regulator reported that the company’s quarterly reports of profit growth over the past few years were “illusions deliberately and systematically created” by the company’s senior management, which resulted in a $10.6 billion accounting scandal.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s report goes on to say that Fannie Mae employees deliberately and intentionally manipulated financial reports to hit earnings targets in order to trigger bonuses for senior executives. In the case of Franklin Raines, Fannie Mae’s former Chief Executive Officer, OFHEO’s report shows that over half of Mr. Raines’ compensation for the 6 years through 2003 was directly tied to meeting earnings targets. The report of financial misconduct at Fannie Mae echoes the deeply troubling $5 billion profit restatement at Freddie Mac.
The OFHEO report also states that Fannie Mae used its political power to lobby Congress in an effort to interfere with the regulator’s examination of the company’s accounting problems. This report comes some weeks after Freddie Mac paid a record $3.8 million fine in a settlement with the Federal Election Commission and restated lobbying disclosure reports from 2004 to 2005. These are entities that have demonstrated over and over again that they are deeply in need of reform.
For years I have been concerned about the regulatory structure that governs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — known as Government-sponsored entities or GSEs — and the sheer magnitude of these companies and the role they play in the housing market. OFHEO’s report this week does nothing to ease these concerns. In fact, the report does quite the contrary. OFHEO’s report solidifies my view that the GSEs need to be reformed without delay.
I join as a co-sponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S.190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole.”
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/record.xpd?id=109-s20060525-1…
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McCain had joined with Senators Charles Hagel (Sponsor), Elizabeth Dole, and John Sununu (Cosponsors) to enact the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005 (S. 190),
The bill (S.190) stalled in the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee and expired at the end of the 109th Congress.
On Apr 12, 2007, S.190 was re-introduced in the Senate (with a new bill number) as S.1100: Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2007.
It, too , is stalled in the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, chaired by Chris Dodd (recipient of the MOST money from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Obama comes in Number Two as having rec’d the most money from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.) http://savagepolitics.com/?p=1884
Is it ANY wonder that this bill (S.1100) regulating mortgage market enterprises is STALLED in the Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee?
Ha.
Geez, what a surprise.
Not.
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Sources:
S.190: Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, at: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s109-190
Here is the “Congressional Research Service Summary” of S.190: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s109-190&tab;=s…
And here’s the full text of S.190: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=s109-190
McCain’s senate statement re: S.190: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/record.xpd?id=109-s20060525-1…
~ ~ ~
S.1100: Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2007, at: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s110-1100
Summary of S. 1100 at: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s110-1100&tab;=…
Full text of S.1100 at: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=s110-1100
It’s the economy, stupid! So, what now?
QUOTE OF THE DAY
It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. — Warren Buffett
WORDS OF THE DAY
Stock market crash
A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock prices across a significant cross-section of a stock market. Crashes are driven by panic as much as by underlying economic factors. They often follow speculative stock market bubbles.
Stock market crashes are social phenomena where external economic events combine with crowd behaviour and psychology in a positive feedback loop where selling by some market participants drives more market participants to sell. Generally speaking, crashes usually occur under the following conditions[citation needed]: a prolonged period of rising stock prices and excessive economic optimism, a market where Price to Earnings ratios exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants.
There is no numerically-specific definition of a crash but the term commonly applies to steep double-digit percentage losses in a stock market index over a period of several days. Crashes are often distinguished from bear markets by panic selling and abrupt, dramatic price declines. Bear markets are periods of declining stock market prices that are measured in months or years. While crashes are often associated with bear markets, they do not necessarily go hand in hand. The crash of 1987 for example did not lead to a bear market. Likewise, the Japanese Nikkei bear market of the 1990s occurred over several years without any notable crashes.
Wall Street Crash of 1929
The most famous crash, the Wall Street Crash of 1929, happened on October 29, 1929. The economy had been growing robustly for most of the so-called Roaring Twenties. It was a technological golden age as innovations such as radio, automobiles, aviation, telephone and the power grid were deployed and adopted. Companies who had pioneered these advances like Radio Corporation of America (RCA), and General Motors saw their stocks soar. Financial corporations also did well as Wall Street bankers floated mutual fund companies (then known as investment trusts) like the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation. Investors were infatuated with the returns available in the stock market especially with the use of leverage through margin debt. On August 24, 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at a value of 63.9. By September 3, 1929, it had risen more than sixfold, touching 381.2. It would not regain this level for another twenty five years. By the summer of 1929, it was clear that the economy was contracting and the stock market went through a series of unsettling price declines. These declines fed investor anxiety and events soon came to a head. October 24 (known as Black Thursday) was the first in a number of increasingly shocking market drops. This was followed swiftly by Black Monday on October 28 and Black Tuesday on October 29.
On Black Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38 points to 260, a drop of 12.8%. The deluge of selling overwhelmed the ticker tape system that normally gave investors the current prices of their shares. Telephone lines and telegraphs were clogged and were unable to cope. This information vacuum only led to more fear and panic. The technology of the New Era, much celebrated by investors previously, now served to deepen their suffering.
Black Tuesday was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23%.
By the end of the week of November 11, the index stood at 228, a cumulative drop of 40 percent from the September high. The markets rallied in succeeding months but it would be a false recovery that led unsuspecting investors into the worst economic crisis of modern times.
Although it is popularly believed that the Crash inflicted heavy financial loss on investors during this period, the Great Depression which followed was far more terrible. While the Crash dealt a severe blow to many a stockholder’s portfolio, the Great Depression brought obliteration and bankruptcy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would lose 89% of its value before finally bottoming out in July 1932.
The Crash of 1987 (Black Monday 1987)
The mid-1980s were a time of strong economic optimism. From August 1982 to its peak in August 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) grew from 776 to 2722. The rise in market indices for the 19 largest markets in the world averaged 296 percent during this period. The average number of shares traded on the NYSE had risen from 65 million shares to 181 million shares.
The crash on October 19, 1987, a date that is also known as Black Monday, was the climactic culmination of a market decline that had begun five days before on October 14th. The DJIA fell 3.81 percent on October 14, followed by another 4.60 percent drop on Friday October 16th. But this was nothing compared to what lay ahead when markets opened on the subsequent Monday. On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrials Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its value in one day. The S&P 500 dropped 20.4%, falling from 282.7 to 225.06. The NASDAQ Composite lost only 11.3% not because of restraint on the part of sellers but because the NASDAQ market system failed. Deluged with sell orders, many stocks on the NYSE faced trading halts and delays. Of the 2,257 NYSE-listed stocks, there were 195 trading delays and halts during the day. The NASDAQ market fared much worse. Because of its reliance on a “market making” system that allowed market makers to withdraw from trading, liquidity in NASDAQ stocks dried up. Trading in many stocks encountered a pathological condition where the bid price for a stock exceeded the ask price. These “locked” conditions severely curtailed trading. On October 19th, trading in Microsoft shares on the NASDAQ lasted a total of 54 minutes.
The Crash was the greatest single-day loss that Wall Street had ever suffered in continuous trading up to that point. Between the start of trading on October 14th to the close on October 19, the DJIA lost 760 points, a decline of over 31 percent.
The 1987 Crash was a worldwide phenomenon. The FTSE 100 Index lost 10.8% on that Monday and a further 12.2% the following day. In the month of October, all major world markets declined substantially. The least affected was Austria (a fall of 11.4%) while the most affected was Hong Kong with a drop of 45.8%. Out of 23 major industrial countries, 19 had a decline greater than 20%.
Despite fears of a repeat of the 1930s Depression, the market rallied immediately after the crash, posting a record one-day gain of 102.27 the very next day and 186.64 points on Thursday October 22. It took only two years for the Dow to recover completely; by September 1989, the market had regained all of the value it had lost in the 1987 crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained six-tenths of a percent during the calendar year 1987.
No definitive conclusions have been reached on the reasons behind the 1987 Crash. Stocks had been in a multi-year bull run and market P/E ratios in the U.S. were above the post-war average. The S&P 500 was trading at 23 times earnings, a postwar high and well above the average of 14.5 times earnings. Herd behaviour and psychological feedback loops play a critical part in all stock market crashes but analysts have also tried to look for external triggering events. Aside from the general worries of stock market overvaluation, blame for the collapse has been apportioned to such factors as program trading, portfolio insurance and derivatives, and prior news of worsening economic indicators (i.e. a large U.S. merchandise trade deficit and a falling U.S. dollar which seemed to imply future interest rate hikes).
One of the consequences of the 1987 Crash was the introduction of the circuit breaker or trading curb on the NYSE. Based upon the idea that a cooling off period would help dissipate investor panic, these mandatory market shutdowns are triggered whenever a large pre-defined market decline occurs during the trading day.
Mathematical theory of stock market crashes
The mathematical characterisation of stock market movements has been a subject of intense interest. The conventional assumption that stock markets behave according to a random Gaussian or normal distribution is incorrect. Large movements in prices (i.e. crashes) are much more common than would be predicted in a normal distribution. Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows that there is evidence that the frequency of stock market crashes follow an inverse cubic power law.[6] This and other studies suggest that stock market crashes are a sign of self-organized criticality in financial markets. In 1963, Benoît Mandelbrot proposed that instead of following a strict random walk, stock price variations executed a Lévy flight. A Lévy flight is a random walk which is occasionally disrupted by large movements. In 1995, Rosario Mantegna and Gene Stanley analyzed a million records of the S&P 500 market index, calculating the returns over a five year period.[8] Their conclusion was that stock market returns are more volatile than a Gaussian distribution but less volatile than a Lévy flight.
Researchers continue to study this theory, particularly using computer simulation of crowd behaviour, and the applicability of models to reproduce crash-like phenomena. (Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash)
Stock Market Bubble
A stock market bubble is a type of economic bubble taking place in stock markets when price of stocks rise and become overvalued by any measure of stock valuation.
The existence of stock market bubbles is at odds with the assumptions of efficient market theory which assumes rational investor behaviour. Behavioural finance theory attribute stock market bubbles to cognitive biases that lead to groupthink and herd behaviour. Bubbles occur not only in real-world markets, with their inherent uncertainty and noise, but also in highly predictable experimental markets. In the laboratory, uncertainty is eliminated and calculating the expected returns should be a simple mathematical exercise, because participants are endowed with assets that are defined to have a finite lifespan and a known probability distribution of dividends. Other theoretical explanations of stock market bubbles have suggested that they are rational, intrinsic, and contagious. (Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_bubble)
Short Selling or Selling Short
The selling of a security that the seller does not own, or any sale that is completed by the delivery of a security borrowed by the seller. Short sellers assume that they will be able to buy the stock at a lower amount than the price at which they sold short.
Selling short is the opposite of going long. That is, short sellers make money if the stock goes down in price.
This is an advanced trading strategy with many unique risks and pitfalls. Novice investors are advised to avoid short sales.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp
Sheep
An investor who lacks a focused trading strategy and trades on emotion and the suggestions of others, including friends, family and financial gurus. This type of investor often makes rash investments without first determining whether these decisions are financially viable. The behaviour of sheep contrasts with that of bulls and bears, who have focused views about the market.
Like a sheep, this type of investor is a follower, relying on a shepherd for guidance. These shepherds can come in the form of financial pundits or the latest trend or market story.
Sheep-like investors are often the last to get in on a major market move, such as the tech boom of the late ’90s, because they base their investments on what is being talked about the most. Many experts believe that sheep-like investors are the most likely to sustain investment losses because they have no clear investment strategy. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sheep.asp
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What were the factors causing the 1987 crash? “A large U.S. merchandise trade deficit and a falling U.S. dollar.”
What are the factors causing this stock market “correction?” (LOL! — that’s what the administration is calling it.) It doesn’t take an economist to figure that out, does it? The same thing has happened here and now. We have a large trade deficit. Why? Part of the problem, IMHO, is that we no longer make tangible goods as the primary means of income, we have become an information services society. The only thing we have to trade is paper (financial products like stock, currency, etc.) and services. Globalization has moved industries that manufacture tangible goods to areas where cheap labor is available, and, given the lack of jobs and low living expenses in third-world countries, that is not us. And the real concern is that our services industry, which was going well because we used to be the leaders in technology, is also going to Asia (India, especially). This industrial and services shift to other countries also means we are no longer self-sufficient. We cannot close our borders and just take care of ourselves. We have lost the steel industry to Japan, the car industry to Asia, the IT industry to India and other parts of Asia and food production to South America. Toys and clothes now come from China.
So, how do we change this trade imbalance? What can we do to stimulate our economy and provide a “saleable” product to trade with?
Green Technology is the answer. We are not in front of the curve on this, either. Brazil has already converted to methanol. Japan has already developed a hydrogen fuel cell car, although it is still not cost-effective. Windmills have been around for quite a while now, and although they used to be used to grind grain into flour, etc., many countries have developed win technology. So we must get off our asses and get busy.
Hydrogen fuel cells provide the best source of green energy that will be kind to our environment. Solar and wind energy can provide considerable “free” sources of energy to light and heat homes with electricity.
And we have all this coal in the ground. We must figure out a way to convert coal to clean (or cleaner) energy that can be distributed more easily (liquefication). In the meantime, we have an abundance of natural gas that would provide a cleaner energy resource for fuelling vehicles. This would remedy our immediate dependence on foreign oil.
There are so many reasons why we need to get this green economy going in a big way. We need a Manhattan Project-level effort, with leadership and subsidies from our government, to get us moving. The subsidies could be tax breaks rather than actual money allocated, since we really don’t need to take on more debt (and that is what would happen, since we are operating on a deficit already).
The other situation we need to correct our financial mess is to get serious about our national debt. We cannot continue to borrow money from the Chinese and Saudis and expect to keep living “high” as if we were “flush” with cash. Hard times are ahead, and we must face them with resolve, commitment and courage.
And we must end the war in Iraq, which is draining us of our resources and creating more debt. The Iraqis have over $70B in assets now. Why can’t they rebuild their own country? Why do we have to pay for it? I realize that we caused much of the destruction, but it seems unreasonable given our economic situation that we should be totally responsible for all the reconstruction.
Whatever package the Congress finally comes up with, it must not be a bailout to private industry that allows for CEOs who mismanaged their companies into this mess to leave with “golden parachutes” (severance or retirement packages worth millions of dollars). And I would even suggest that all those BILLIONS of dollars of bonuses given out last year to investment managers should be recovered, at least in part. The taxpayers did not create this mess, and it is unreasonable to make us have to bail private industries out because of mismanagement, fraud and abuse. These executives and managers should be held accountable for their actions financially, as well as via criminal prosecution.
It’s the economy, stupid….
It seemed like a good idea at the time. But, just like junk bonds, selling bad paper eventually catches up with you.
The concept of making homes more affordable so that more Americans could invest in homes, which is where most Americans have the majority of their assets, in and of itself, was not a bad idea. In particular, to be able to expand home ownership to some parts of our society that had found many obstacles to home ownership was a noble and worthy idea. It was an effort to find a solution to overcoming the obstacles to home ownership for low-income minorities and the lower class, which are primarily their modest incomes and the inability to save large down payments or make high monthly mortgage payments given their modest incomes.
There is a relationship between Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Congressional Black Caucus (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1BOj6kTPgE) which helped inspire, or at least contributed to, these “loose” loans in order to get more minorities to qualify for home loans. It was an idea filled with good intentions and bad implementation, or, at least, poorly thought out. Combine that with corporate greed, and then spread the concept throughout the mortgage market, and you get the toxic combination that turned brokers into peddlers of bad paper, just like the junk bonds of the ’80s.
There are four reasons why minorities don’t get loans: (1) real racism; (2) bad credit, or (3) inadequate income to justify a mortgage and (4) lack of access to legal counsel when entering into contracts and mortgages.
The racism factor could be addressed with existing law and some industry education to brokers. The other three problems require a cooperative effort between individuals, community businesses and the government. Individuals must learn how to effectively manage their finances and credit, communities must encourage home ownership, help provide legal counsel at reduced cost and ensure sound lending practices, and the government must properly exercise its financial and regulatory arms.
The emphasis should have been on getting to high school kids and young adults early on to teach them about credit and how to manage it and why it is so important. Additionally, to teach a functional understanding of contracts and when it is time to consult a legal professional. It is important to catch them BEFORE they have ruined their credit and entered into injurious contracts. Once they have, it is, for all practical purposes, too late, or, at the very least, they will have to put their dreams of home ownership on hold for a very, very long time.
The inadequate income issue is a two-pronged solution:
(1) the government and private industry must work to create more jobs, which means there will be more competition for workers, thus higher salaries offered to job applicants; perform its oversight and regulatory responsibilities; AND generate better paying jobs, which brings in how we negotiate trade agreements to include labor, environmental and consumer protection standards; and
(2) the government, private industry and individual families must teach people to pursue an education and/or training to improve their career choices and potential income, live within their means, manage their credit and teach them to save and invest their money, which will ultimately increase their income.
In an economy that is working as it should and a housing mortgage market that is working as it should, people with lower incomes have to put up a higher down-payment to reduce the amount of the value of the loan they are financing. These standards and restrictions are not just to protect the industry, but to protect home buyers from committing to a mortgage they ultimately cannot afford.
The results we are facing are based on ALL factors failing: people did not behave responsibly in managing their personal finances and in entering into serious financial commitments without the proper information and preparation (or legal guidance); the market regulators did not do their jobs; the mortgage brokers sold bad paper to the banks, which did not do due diligence before accepting that paper. It failed at every step of the way.
It’s not just a “housing bubble.” A housing bubble bursting would have been absorbed by the market with a minor correction. This devastating blow that has taken place has roots that are deeper and more pervasive. This failure is a systemic failure caused by deregulation and corporate mismanagement. And now the taxpayers will be paying for this failure of our government and private industry for decades to come.
Now we are faced with bailing out private investment houses and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both of which should not be Federally guaranteedin the first place ��” that was a huge mistake from the get-go. The taxpayers should not be required to guarantee profits to these failed companies. Likewise, the CEOs of these failed investment houses should not be allowed golden parachutes.
We need to fundamentally start from scratch with this one and make sure both the taxpayer and the investor are protected from this fraud and abuse by CEOs who get off scot-free with multimillion dollar seeverance or retirement packages when they are fired or retire in shame.
Whatever aid package the Congress and the President come up with must provide for not only market stabilization, but something to protect the devastating effect on homeowners who have been unfairly impacted by this debacle.
Voting party platforms
Party platforms are wonderful things. Their words contain the articulated hopes and aspirations that supposedly represent what a political party stands for. But how important are they, really? How much should they factor in a decision to vote for a particular candidate for president?
I believe you must vote on the candidate’s character, judgment and experience (I include voting record in experience as EVIDENCE of experience). Why? Because issues come and go. The platform is the stated agenda for the party, true. But it is not a Contract with America (Yeah, I know, sorry Newt.) We can’;t sue if they don’t achieve their agenda or even if they don’t try. They get to stay in power for four years regardless. As Will Rogers said, “On account of being a democracy and run by the people, we are the only nation in the world that has to keep a government four years, no matter what it does” And platforms require a majority in both houses and the presidency for even a snowball’s chance in hell for being a probable thing, forget a sure thing.
So, what have you got left? The presidency is the place where the vision for America (the big picture) is set, where the goals (party platform) is set forth, and where the project schedule and the task lists (pieces of legislation) are broken down and delegated out. Beyond that, the presidency is a problem-solving, decision-making job. As GWB said, “I am the Decider”
Which means you ideally have to have someone who is open to new ideas, flexible and able to think on their feet, with a good intellect, intellectual curiosity, intellectual discipline, analytical ability, ability to communicate, team-building skills, integrity, honesty, judgment and the experience to make all that come together into a plan of action and set of priorities that can be handed off to a team that is marching in formation with their “eyes on the prize” all of which can change from second to second, as is the nature of national and international crises. These are personality, character and judgment qualities — skills that come together to solve crises, i.e., the Cuban Missile Crisis, 9/11, Katrina, the infrastructure problem (bridge collapses that everyone has forgotten now), the 2008 Midwest floods (which are now a distant memory for most people), just to name a few — that are the most important decisions a president ever makes. Even if not even one piece of legislation outside of appropriations bills gets passed and signed during a president’s tenure, we need someone with THOSE decision-making abilities and qualities to sit in that Oval Office.
Platforms are, sadly, for the most part, empty promises — hopes and aspirations, not immediate probabilities. Lawmakers do not feel the sense of urgency except for about six months before the first Tuesday in November on every even-numbered year, when the primary season kicks in full gear (if that often). And even then, they are too afraid of upsetting a voting block to take on any legislation that might require taking a stand or making waves.
How long has universal healthcare been on the DNC platform? At least since 1972, when I first voted. What about a pro-life amendment or the “;marriage” amendment? At least since 1980 when Reagan ran for office, maybe before, I don’t really remember now. If you look at the platforms of either party and read all the stuff they promise they WANT to do (not that they actually WILL GET DONE), it’s been on the party platform for decades now. Given that this is the case, how can the party platform really be taken seriously — as a real Contract with America (again, sorry Newt)? So, in light of these facts, does it really make sense to vote a platform?
As much as I love Hillary and supported her, and I do, and I did and I stil do and will again, her reasoning for asking her supporters to support Obama is flawed for all the reasons given above.
Platforms don’t give State of the Union speeches. Platforms don’t sign or veto legislation. Platforms don’t take calls from world leaders, or attend meetings of the G-8). Platforms don’t sit across from Kruschev in Berlin while he is beating the table with his shoe and keep their cool. Platforms don’t look into the eyes of Putin and other world leaders and try to “see their soul.” Platforms don’t make life and death decisions. Platforms don’t negotiate peace agreements in Northern Ireland, or the Balkans, or the Middle East. Platforms don’t make decisions. They don’t even contain decisions that are BINDING. Presidents do these things. And presidents are people, not platforms.
So, when you vote for president, are you voting for a person or a platform? In the end, all you really have is a man or woman sitting in a chair in an oval-shaped room taking that famous 3 a.m. phone call and praying to God he or she doesn’t screw it up.
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